# Investing in Crisis Times: What the Data Really Shows — innoVorsorge AG > Crashes are part of investing – but they only cost you money if you react wrongly. This article shows you with data from Dalbar, Vanguard and Morningstar why staying the course is the best strategy. Adresse: https://www.innovorsorge.ch/en/blog/investing-in-crisis-times Diese Fassung wird beim Bau aus dem Inhalt der Seite erzeugt. --- 28 Apr Written by Lukas Bachmann # Investing in Crisis Times: What the Data Really Shows Crashes are unpleasant. But they are not the exception — they are part of the system. Anyone who invests long-term experiences at least two to three major downturns in their investing lifetime. The crucial question is not whether the next crash will come. But how you behave when it does. The harsh truth: It is not the market that eats up your returns. **It is you yourself.** ## What History Shows Every crash feels uniquely terrible in the moment. Only in hindsight does it become clear how similar they are in their pattern: steep decline, longer recovery, then new highs. | Crash | Index | Decline | Recovery | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Dotcom 2000–2002 | S&P 500 | −49% | ~6–7 years | | Financial crisis 2007–2009 | S&P 500 | −57% | ~5.5 years | | COVID crash 2020 | S&P 500 | −34% | ~5 months | | COVID crash 2020 | SMI | −32% | ~3 months | | Bear market 2022 | S&P 500 | −25% | ~1.5 years | SMI progression: Those who sold at the low missed +73% Simplified representation of the SMI trend. Source: SIX / Finanzen.net. Those who sold at the SMI low of March 16, 2020, exited at about 7,650 points. Six years later, the index stands at around **13,268 points** — an increase of **73 percent without dividends**. CHF 100,000 on the sidelines has shrunk in real purchasing power. CHF 100,000 that stayed in the portfolio would be worth around **CHF 173,000** today. ## The Most Expensive Return: The One You Give Away Yourself The renowned **Dalbar study** has measured for decades the difference between the return an index generates and the return private investors actually achieve. The result is consistently disappointing. The Behavior Gap — Dalbar Study 2024 **In 2024**, the average stock investor achieved 16.54%, while the S&P 500 achieved 25.05%. A gap of **848 basis points in one year** — the second largest in the last ten years. The reason: investors had net outflows from equity funds in every quarter of 2024. They sold, even though the market was rising. Over 20 years, the average investor achieved **9.24%** per year, while the index achieved **10.35%**. Extrapolated to a CHF 500,000 portfolio over 20 years: the average investor gave away roughly **CHF 700,000 in final wealth**, purely through bad timing. The **Morningstar study "Mind the Gap"** comes to a similar conclusion: over ten years, investors lose on average **1.1 percentage points per year** compared to the fund return — that is about **15 percent of the total return**. Sector funds are hit hardest: minus 2.6 percentage points per year. Volatile products lead to more emotional trading — and emotional trading costs money. ## Why We All Make the Same Mistakes Two psychological effects dominate every crash behavior. ### Loss Aversion The work of Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (Prospect Theory) shows: losses are felt about **2.25 times as strongly** as equally large gains. The pain of losing CHF 10,000 feels greater than the joy of gaining CHF 10,000. In a crash, you want to stop the pain — so you sell. That this sale only cements the real loss feels irrelevant in the moment. ### Recency Bias We project recent events disproportionately into the future. After a week of red days, more red days seem inevitable. After three months of rising prices, rising prices feel like the norm. Both are wrong — but both feel right. Anyone who knows these two biases recognizes them in themselves. Recognition alone does not heal. But it is the first step to overruling them. ## Lump Sum vs. Staggered Investing The **Vanguard study** examined from 1976 to 2022 whether a lump sum investment or staggered investing (dollar-cost averaging, DCA) performs better. The surprising result: Lump sum beats DCA in 68% of cases Why DCA at all? Because it is easier psychologically. Anyone who invests a fixed amount each month does not think about the optimal entry point. This prevents panic selling — and panic selling costs significantly more than the DCA disadvantage. The best strategy is therefore usually not the mathematically optimal one, but the one **you can stick with emotionally.** ## What You Should Actually Do in the Next Crash The next crash will come. No one knows when. Whoever pretends to know is lying. What works instead of timing: - **Keep automated saving.**Your savings plan continues — especially during a crash. At the low you buy cheaply. This is not brave, but systematic. - **Do not look at your portfolio daily.**Anyone who checks prices hourly during a crash overloads themselves emotionally. One look per quarter is enough. - **Build emergency fund first, then invest.**Three to six months of expenses in cash. Those with an emergency fund do not have to sell at the worst time in a crash. - **Take your risk profile seriously.**If you panic at -30 percent, you were never "risk-seeking." A portfolio with 80 percent equities is not suitable for everyone. - **Write down long-term goals.**Why do you invest? Retirement? Home purchase? Freedom? In a crash, it helps to remember the reason. ## The 2026 Context What is the current situation? The Swiss National Bank has kept the key interest rate since March 2026 at **0.0%**. Inflation is low at 0.3%, GDP growth is projected at around 1%. The SMI is trading at about 13,268 points — near the 52-week high of 13,323. What this means Savings accounts bring real purchasing power losses. Those who do not invest lose slowly — just more quietly. At the same time, valuations are high; a setback is possible at any time. The question is not whether it comes, but how you behave when it does. ## The Role of Independent Advice in a Crisis Here it gets concrete: an independent advisor does not tell you in a crash to switch holdings, change your strategy or buy a new product — just because a commission can be earned. They tell you what you actually do not want to hear: **"Stay the course."** That is not advice that generates much revenue. But that is exactly why it is most valuable in a crisis. ## Conclusion Crashes are normal. They are the price for the long-term superior return of equities. Those who do not accept them pay a different price: the lost return through emotional timing, which the average investor has demonstrated for decades. The best strategy is rarely the most complex. It is the one you stick with. If you can honestly admit to yourself how much volatility you can tolerate, and if you have a plan you can cling to in the storm — then you are already ahead of 95 percent of investors. Unsure whether your portfolio can withstand the next crash? In a free strategy meeting we review your investment strategy together — independent, without product sales. [Book a free strategy meeting →](https://www.innovorsorge.ch/en/strategy-meeting) No sales. No commission. Only independent advice. ### Sources - [Dalbar QAIB 2025 — Behavior Gap](https://www.dalbar.com/PressReleases/doc/2025QAIBPressRelease.pdf) - [Morningstar — Mind the Gap 2024](https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/mind-the-gap) - [Vanguard — Lump Sum vs. Cost Averaging (2023)](https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/cost_averaging_invest_now_or_temporarily_hold_your_cash.pdf) - [Kahneman / Tversky — Prospect Theory (1979)](https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/15341_Readings/Behavioral_Decision_Theory/Kahneman_Tversky_1979_Prospect_theory.pdf) - [SNB — Monetary policy assessment March 2026](https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260319) - [SIX Group — SMI overview](https://www.six-group.com/en/market-data/indices/switzerland/equity/smi.html) - [Statista — S&P 500 major crashes compared](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1175227/s-and-p-500-major-crashes-change/) [Pillar 3a: New Beneficiary Regulation from 2027Next](https://www.innovorsorge.ch/en/blog/pillar-3a-new-beneficiary-regulation-2027)